What Burnham’s Westminster tilt means for Greater Manchester
Mayor Andy Burnham will contest a tricky by-election in Wigan in a bid to become an MP and launch a challenge to Keir Starmer’s leadership. If he wins, the mayoralty he has held since 2017 would be up for grabs.
What happens next?
Burnham’s route back to Westminster became clearer yesterday when MP Josh Simons said he would give up his seat in Makerfield so that Burnham could stand, but the journey is unlikely to be straightforward.
Burnham was blocked by Labour’s National Executive Committee from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election in March, a decision that prompted criticism of Starmer.
That election was won by the Greens. This time round it looks likely that the NEC will allow Burnham to run.
The Makerfield by-election is expected to be held in mid-June and, assuming he is allowed to run, Burnham he will face a tough test from Reform.
Nigel Farage’s party came second in the 2024 General Election, around 5,000 votes behind Labour’s Simons. This margin is “comfortable but not untouchable in the current political climate”, according to Charlotte Leach, founder of Charlotte Leach Communications.
Since the 2024, the parties’ ratings have diverged, and some commentators are using the recent local election results in Wigan – when 24 of the 25 available seats went the way of Reform – as an indicator of how tough it will be for Burnham.
“The electoral ground beneath Labour’s former heartlands is moving much faster than many in Westminster still seem willing to admit,” Leach added.
The former Leigh MP, the only politician in the country with a net positive approval rating, will be hoping his popularity will be endure long enough to override the negative feeling towards the Labour Party that was born out in the recent local elections.
Rob Loughenbury, managing director at strategic communications firm Lexington described Burnham’s decision to run in Makerfield as “punchy”.
“It is all or nothing,” he said. “If Andy Burnham pulls it off, he will have clear evidence that he can beat Reform and will head to Westminster with unstoppable momentum.
“But the local election results suggest he has a mountain to climb to win this seat.”
Speculation over Burnham’s future has circulated since last year. Credit: PNW
What does it mean for Greater Manchester if he wins?
If Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election he would be disqualified as mayor, sparking a by-election.
Commentators expect Reform to throw the kitchen sink at a Greater Manchester mayoral by-election. A win for Nigel Farage’s party would represent a paradigm shift for the city region’s political landscape, which has been dominated by Labour in recent years.
Burnham has won three mayoral elections in 2017, 2021, and 2024 securing more than 63% of the vote on each occasion. However, without the so-called King of the North, Labour’s chances of success would look much slimmer.
“Reform would be favourites to win an election for a new Greater Manchester Mayor,” Loughenbury said.
Leach agrees the move is a risk. “There is a plausible argument that moving [Burnham] back to Westminster would amount to sacrificing one of Labour’s strongest devolved positions in order to try to stabilise the party nationally.”
David Blackadder-Weinstein, director and head of Midlands
“There will be a really strong narrative about Andy Burnham in Westminster being able to work with his successor in Greater Manchester for the betterment of the whole of the North West and the country,” he said.
“Burnham’s already spoken himself about “Manchesterising” national government to achieve economic growth and better living standards for all.”
Andy Burnham has won three mayoral elections. Credit: PNW
Who might stand as Labour’s mayoral candidate?
It is unclear at this stage who would run as the Labour candidate in a by-election. Names that have been bandied about previously include Manchester City Council Leader Cllr Bev Craig and Salford Mayor Paul Dennett. Another possible option is former Manchester United captain Gary Neville, who potentially has the profile and popularity – if not the political experience – to ward off a Reform challenge.
“If Andy Burnham moves on, Labour will look to its current city council leaders for a candidate with a record of governing and a support base with activists,” Loughenbury said. “But with the electorate in mutinous mood, some will wonder whether an establishment voice is an effective defence against the energy of more radical options.”
Blackadder-Weinstein thinks Greater Manchester MPs Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner would be good fits.
“They should be able to have a risk-free hit at it without having to jeopardise their constituency seat, so they either get a cabinet position they want or they get the GMCA Mayor role,” he said.
Critical in determining the outcome of the mayoral by-election will be the voting system used.
If an election were to be held today, the first past the post system would be used. The system is due to be changed back to a supplementary vote – which it is thought would work in Labour’s favour. However, the secondary legislation for this change has not yet been passed.
“The use of the first past the post voting system will be to Reform’s advantage, with the party winning votes across the old left-right divide,” Loughenbury said.
“Meanwhile, Labour would be squeezed from left and right and will be without Andy Burnham’s popularity.”
If Burnham is beaten in the Makerfield by-election, it is understood he would be able to carry on as mayor if he chooses. Although questions would surely be raised about his commitment to the job.
“There is also a potential political risk for Burnham personally if he were seen to be jumping ship back to Westminster,” Leach said.
“Some Greater Manchester voters may well feel disappointed by that, particularly if they feel he is leaving before the job is finished.”
How would Burnham fair in a battle for the Labour leadership?
Subject to a win in Makerfield, Burnham is expected to throw his hat into the ring in a fight for his party’s leadership. He will almost certainly face off against former health secretary Wes Streeting, who resigned from his post on Thursday, and under-fire incumbent Starmer.
Burnham, whose supporters are reported to include home secretary Shabana Mahmood, and Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell, would be the candidate favoured by the so-called ‘soft left’ of the party, with Streeting to the right and Starmer holding the centre ground.
Angela Rayner, having recently resolved a tax issue with HMRC, could also run, and is understood to be very popular within the party. If she choses not to run, that would be good news for Burnham’s prospects.
Former Labour leader Ed Miliband, Mahmood, and defence minister Al Carns are outside bets.
In order to run, a candidate would need the backing of 20% of Labour’s MPs; the magic number is 81, per the party’s rules.
