What Burnham’s Westminster tilt means for Greater Manchester
Mayor Andy Burnham will contest a tricky by-election in Wigan in a bid to become an MP and launch a challenge to Keir Starmer’s leadership. If he wins, the mayoralty he has held since 2017 would be up for grabs.
What happens next?
Burnham’s route back to Westminster became clearer yesterday when MP Josh Simons said he would give up his seat in Makerfield so that Burnham could stand, but the journey is unlikely to be straightforward.
Burnham was blocked by Labour’s National Executive Committee from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election in March, a decision that prompted criticism of Starmer.
That election was won by the Greens. This time round it looks likely that the NEC will allow Burnham to run.
The Makerfield by-election is expected to be held in mid-June and, assuming he is allowed to run, Burnham he will face a tough test from Reform.
Nigel Farage’s party came second in the 2024 General Election, around 5,000 votes behind Labour’s Simons. This margin is “comfortable but not untouchable in the current political climate”, according to Charlotte Leach, founder of Charlotte Leach Communications.
Since the 2024, the parties’ ratings have diverged, and some commentators are using the recent local election results in Wigan – when 24 of the 25 available seats went the way of Reform – as an indicator of how tough it will be for Burnham.
“The electoral ground beneath Labour’s former heartlands is moving much faster than many in Westminster still seem willing to admit,” Leach added.
The former Leigh MP, the only politician in the country with a net positive approval rating, will be hoping his popularity will be endure long enough to override the negative feeling towards the Labour Party that was born out in the recent local elections.
Rob Loughenbury, managing director at strategic communications firm Lexington described Burnham’s decision to run in Makerfield as “punchy”.
“It is all or nothing,” he said. “If Andy Burnham pulls it off, he will have clear evidence that he can beat Reform and will head to Westminster with unstoppable momentum.
“But the local election results suggest he has a mountain to climb to win this seat.”
Speculation over Burnham’s future has circulated since last year. Credit: PNW
What does it mean for Greater Manchester if he wins?
If Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election he would be disqualified as mayor, sparking a by-election.
Commentators expect Reform to throw the kitchen sink at a Greater Manchester mayoral by-election. A win for Nigel Farage’s party would represent a paradigm shift for the city region’s political landscape, which has been dominated by Labour in recent years.
Burnham has won three mayoral elections in 2017, 2021, and 2024 securing more than 63% of the vote on each occasion. However, without the so-called King of the North, Labour’s chances of success would look much slimmer.
“Reform would be favourites to win an election for a new Greater Manchester Mayor,” Loughenbury said.
Leach agrees the move is a risk. “There is a plausible argument that moving [Burnham] back to Westminster would amount to sacrificing one of Labour’s strongest devolved positions in order to try to stabilise the party nationally.”
David Blackadder-Weinstein, director and head of Midlands
“There will be a really strong narrative about Andy Burnham in Westminster being able to work with his successor in Greater Manchester for the betterment of the whole of the North West and the country,” he said.
“Burnham’s already spoken himself about “Manchesterising” national government to achieve economic growth and better living standards for all.”
Andy Burnham has won three mayoral elections. Credit: PNW
Who might stand as Labour’s mayoral candidate?
It is unclear at this stage who would run as the Labour candidate in a by-election. Names that have been bandied about previously include Manchester City Council Leader Cllr Bev Craig and Salford Mayor Paul Dennett. Another possible option is former Manchester United captain Gary Neville, who potentially has the profile and popularity – if not the political experience – to ward off a Reform challenge.
“If Andy Burnham moves on, Labour will look to its current city council leaders for a candidate with a record of governing and a support base with activists,” Loughenbury said. “But with the electorate in mutinous mood, some will wonder whether an establishment voice is an effective defence against the energy of more radical options.”
Blackadder-Weinstein thinks Greater Manchester MPs Lisa Nandy or Angela Rayner would be good fits.
“They should be able to have a risk-free hit at it without having to jeopardise their constituency seat, so they either get a cabinet position they want or they get the GMCA Mayor role,” he said.
Critical in determining the outcome of the mayoral by-election will be the voting system used.
If an election were to be held today, the first past the post system would be used. The system is due to be changed back to a supplementary vote – which it is thought would work in Labour’s favour. However, the secondary legislation for this change has not yet been passed.
“The use of the first past the post voting system will be to Reform’s advantage, with the party winning votes across the old left-right divide,” Loughenbury said.
“Meanwhile, Labour would be squeezed from left and right and will be without Andy Burnham’s popularity.”
If Burnham is beaten in the Makerfield by-election, it is understood he would be able to carry on as mayor if he chooses. Although questions would surely be raised about his commitment to the job.
“There is also a potential political risk for Burnham personally if he were seen to be jumping ship back to Westminster,” Leach said.
“Some Greater Manchester voters may well feel disappointed by that, particularly if they feel he is leaving before the job is finished.”
How would Burnham fare in a battle for the Labour leadership?
Subject to a win in Makerfield, Burnham is expected to throw his hat into the ring in a fight for his party’s leadership. He will almost certainly face off against former health secretary Wes Streeting, who resigned from his post on Thursday, and under-fire incumbent Starmer.
Burnham, whose supporters are reported to include home secretary Shabana Mahmood, and Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell, would be the candidate favoured by the so-called ‘soft left’ of the party, with Streeting to the right and Starmer holding the centre ground.
Angela Rayner, having recently resolved a tax issue with HMRC, could also run, and is understood to be very popular within the party. If she choses not to run, that would be good news for Burnham’s prospects.
Former Labour leader Ed Miliband, Mahmood, and defence minister Al Carns are outside bets.
In order to run, a candidate would need the backing of 20% of Labour’s MPs; the magic number is 81, per the party’s rules.
The political capital Burnham has managed to build off the back of Leese and Bernstein’s 30 years worth of city building is incredible. Fair Play. It is probably a clear indicator of the lack of any real political heavyweight’s across all the main parties. Apart from centralising the bus network what else has he actually delivered in his years of Mayor…apart from ceding power to the Greens?
By Anonymous
Time for the Manchester property and development community to visibly and practically get behind Burnham and – hopefully – behind the next Labour Mayor … if they want the GM growth story to continue !
By Anonymous
A Reform mayor of Greater Manchester would be a disaster.
By Anonymous
I wish Andy well. Whatever party we support, he’s going to be a big loss to Greater Manchester and a difficult act to follow.
By Peter Black
Burnham is a very clever politician Manchester success was thanks to people like Howard Bernstein all he had to do was not mess it up. London media think he is responsible for all them skyscrapers and economic growth when it was going to happen anyway
By Teddy
Andy has done a solid job but he inherited a region that was already on the up it would have been interesting if he was mayor of Liverpool then we would know how good he really was…
By Trevor Carden
Get Bev Craig in big hitter
By Terence
Vote Reform; Kill GM.
By Ride the Grift
Manchester and it’s surrounds have to thank Bernstein and Lees NOT Burnham for the areas prominence today
Burnham is and always will be interested only in himself —–/a Master at posing for the cameras on the advent of any good news but not to be seen when strikes are threatened or take place on his so called flagship project The Yellow Buses ! ! ! !
Apart from the Buses what has he supposedly achieved ? Certainly not sorting out the lives of the many homeless sleepers in The City Centre and Greater Manchester where again he tries to take credit for helping to make better this dire situation when everyone knows any positive input on his behalf has been negligible ! ! !
By Frank
He could finish up with nothing. He will be no use to the North jobless. If Reform win in GM we will be saddled with a Mayor wanting to cancel NPR and LMR. Do not take out the flop which is Starmer on our future. Remember one of the Reform big wigs, posted a nasty tweet about Manchester recently, saying it was a dump and not a liveable city. There is no point in Burnham returning to Westminster, unless he is PM.
By Elephant
Burnham is a self publicist who never misses a photo opportunity. Manchester has continued to flourish……no thanks to him of course…….but the rest of greater manchester has continued to struggle……. that is the true legacy……and better buses tbf. But he has shown his true colours and ignores the obvious consequences of a mayoral GM election for the region and North west to seek personal glory down south. I cam only hope that he’ll be a better PM than a Mayor…..very unlikely though
By Kellyboy
A shameless self publicist even by the standards of modern day politics. Like his fellow Mayor down the M62, more interested in chasing the next photo opportunity. The heavy lifting had been done years before his arrival by the likes of Lees, Bernstein and Boylan.
By Anonymous
“All he had to do was not mess it up”. Hahaha! It’s easier said than done, as many Prime Ministers have tried recently. I think he deserves more credit than he’s getting here.
By Anonymous
Send Steve Rotherham over there as he’s rather ineffective here.
By Steve
I’m not sure it will make a lot of difference to Manchester but it will be very interesting to watch how things pan out!
By [email protected]
It’s true that Manchester city centre renaissance was started before the GM mayor was in place but I think Burnham has done a good job in his role, especially taking the buses back into public control. Unfortunately all the good work of the last 3 decades will be undone if a Reform mayor is elected.
By Anonymous
Yes Leese, Bernstein etc did all the hard ground work. But as one person has said it’s easier said than done to not mess it up in this day and age with so much scrutiny, misinformation and right wing propaganda on social media. Look at Starmer, Sunek, Truss, Boris, May etc and tell them how easy it is to not mess it up. And tbh most successful politicians are shameless self publicists you have to he ine to survive in that world. Overall i think Burnham is one of the better ones who has done a reasonable job. I wish him luck and hope he gets to be PM and wield some real power. Better him than another southerner who has no real interest in the north
By Anonymous
Great man and personality. sure he knows how to put himself into the spotlight but with good reason as he is very proactive and assertive and has a vision. It he wins it will be a loss for Manchester but if he gets elected as PM a win for the whole country.
He is one of the few powerful people in this country who understands the paramount importance of great public transport infrastructure. Let us not forget e.g. that nearly all larger cities in Europe without an urban rail system are now in Britain. So if he leaves Manchester lets hope the successors has the same insights and e.g. the (for 30 years!) planned construction of the Metrolink extension to Stockport can start as pushed by Burnham. Much more to say but hopefully all comes out well for both Manchester and the country in these challenging times.
By Urs M.
Labour may not be the most popular party at the moment but they have been great for Manchester. Fingers crossed burnham wins that seat and a decent mayor candidate is put forward. Reform would ruin GM.
By Anonymous
The country is broke. It’s pretty much who can manage the decline best over the coming years. Little to no manufacturing, can’t compete in the high tech industries like AI, blockchain, genomonics, robotics etc..things that will decimate the service industries very quickly and where the profits go to high growth countries like US and China . We have an impossibly large state sector generating far too little revenue and taxes and no way of even beginning to pay down the national debt as the tax base is further eroded through job displacement. Bringing in low paid food delivery boys and uber drivers by the million isn’t going to fix that. Even they’ll be replaced within the next 5 yrs. No wonder Big Brother has been on Steroids since Starmer came to power. Keeping the lid on civil unrest is going to be the greatest skill the next PM needs not building bus networks.
By Orwell’s Ghost
Orwell’s Ghost – you need to get out more and get your head out of social media doom scrolling. Things are honestly not as bad as you think.
By Anonymous
If Reform get mayor of Manchester God help us.
By Pat
It’s obvious now that everyone has seen through Labour, that wasn’t just a protest vote recently. Clearly that’s a hard cope for some people but reality says they are a dead party because of what they are doing to the country led by a man with an unknown agenda. Changing leadership isn’t even the tip of the iceberg when it comes to fixing them. Anyone with a brain can see that the issues are manifest and only the blind follow a fool when he’s leading them to disaster. Burnham may be a decent enough man but he’s shackled to the wrong cart and national politics is a very different beast to sorting out the bus routes. Twelve years out of power last time, likely gone forever come the next election.
By Anonymous
I’m voting for anyone but Andy come the AIM elections. I really don’t want him to be wasted in Westminster which he would be.
By Anonymous
Oh Anonymous 4.18 things aren’t that bad? tell that to the record numbers of youth unemployed announced today or to the people looking for jobs on boards like Indeed where the numbers of jobs advertised in the service sector has significantly reduced over the past couple of years. Things aren’t that bad until all of a sudden they are. Will Andy fix that? Not the remotest chance. The Daily Mirror is not your friend any more than doomscrolling.
By Orwell’s ghost
Orwell Ghost, if you think things are bad now just wait until Farage gets in power, we will all be doomed then.
By Anonymous
Labour are already in power it. The only way it could get any worse is if Angela Rayner took over..then we’d really be doomed !
By Anonymous
The problem won’t be Labour any longer nationally at least. I agree they are pretty much finished as a force now, the problem in a lot of areas will be the student union or the Greens. Definitely won’t be much development if that level of nonsense takes root.
By Anonymous