IN FOCUS | What does a strong Reform mean for property?

With more than 100 seats in the North West won, and no doubt more to follow, the industry can no longer ignore the Nigel Farage-led party. We spoke with strategic communications professionals about what Reform’s rise means for the industry.

The results from 7 May were of little surprise to many, including Kevin Whitmore, director at Cavendish.

“The Reform tide was always coming in this year’s local elections,” he said. “The only question was how high up the beach it would go.

“At this early stage it is clear that even in historic Labour strongholds Reform is able to transform the political dynamics of councils across the region,” he continued.

Navigating the new political reality

“Reform can no longer be treated as a fringe factor in northern local government,” said Charlotte Leach, founder of Charlotte Leach Communications.

“In a number of places, they are now part of the political arithmetic that developers, investors and public affairs teams will need to understand,” she said.

Accordingly, engagement with local authorities and residents has never been more important.

“In communities that feel economically or politically overlooked, engagement cannot simply be treated as a process to manage through planning,” Leach warned.

“Understanding local sentiment and political undercurrents is becoming a far more material part of development risk.”

Rob Loughenbury, managing director of Lexington North, agreed. “Early engagement with new leaders will be essential,” he said.

He added: “The main takeaways for property and real estate will be the emergence of no-overall control as the new normal across much of the North.

“This will mean split planning committees and council leaders constrained by the lack of a majority. Local politics will be tougher to navigate and more important than ever for property investors, developers and planners.”

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The property world will also need to be patient.

While the election results are flashy, developers and the built environment world should pay more attention to the first full council meetings to get a better sense of what, exactly, the aftermath of 7 May means for their industry, according to David Blackadder-Weinstein, director and head of Midlands and North strategic communications at Turley.

Reform candidates are largely new councillors, so it will take time for them to learn the ins and outs of local government, said Jeremy Hinds, director and North planning lead at Savills. He predicted that during this period officers may have more influence and that big changes are unlikely to happen.

“I think it’s easy to say ‘the world is going to end tomorrow’, but when you step back a bit it won’t operate that way because unpicking long-term positions is a difficult exercise,” he said.

Still, the election could have repercussions for Greater Manchester, Hinds warned, noting that the city region has benefited from having councils that were either mostly Labour-led or had a general consensus that working together was better than butting heads.

“Local authorities across Greater Manchester have a long-established history of having local politics still feel collaborative and not having that divisive national politics approach,” Hinds said. “That is likely to be a broken story under Reform.”

“Reform councillors are more likely to be grounded in their views and everyone who is not Reform will coalesce against them,” he continued.

Expect less collaboration, more division.

Warning shots

Keir Starmer has reason to be worried – as do Labour leaders across the country.

“Bolton is a warning shot,” Leach said, referencing Leader Cllr Nick Peel losing his seat at yesterday’s election.

“When a sitting council leader loses their seat, it tells you that local politics is moving faster than many organisations’ stakeholder maps,” she said.

“Wigan is also particularly striking because it shows Reform cutting through in places where Labour dominance has historically been taken for granted. Even where overall control does not immediately change, the mood music around planning, housing and regeneration can shift very quickly.”

Opposition suits Reform nicely too, she warned.

“Reform are political disruptors by nature and, in many ways, can actually be more unpredictable in opposition than in control,” Leach said.

“Opposition groups do not carry the same responsibilities around delivery or governance, which means they are often freer to channel frustration, challenge established growth narratives and mobilise local feeling around contentious development proposals.”

Reform in reality

While Reform may lean into its disruptive nature, property professionals would be wrong to leap to the conclusion that the party’s rise is bad news for the industry.

Blackadder-Weinstein points people to Reform’s May 2024 election manifesto. “It’s very pro-development,” he said. “It’s very much about cutting red tape. It’s about creating growth.”

“I don’t think we should expect an increase in Reform representation at a local authority level to suddenly mean that development is going to get harder. There is definitely going to be change, and with change will always come a degree of delay while everyone works out who will be in each seat, who will be sitting on which committee…”

But rather than guess blindly, Blackadder-Weinstein encourages developers to look to the Midlands, where several councils have been under Reform control for the past year. These include Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, North Northamptonshire, and West Northamptonshire.

“We’ve been progressing projects in those areas and Reform has been overwhelmingly pro-growth, pro-development, supportive of projects that create more homes, supportive of better roads, better railways…”

“There’s nothing that I’ve seen in the Midlands over the last year in areas where Reform has had a track record of 12 months in power to suggest that the party’s increase in representation in the North West will stymie growth.”

Of course, the same cannot be said where it comes to green goals and sustainability ambitions, with Reform rolling back climate emergency declarations and climate targets in Kent, Durham, Staffordshire, Lancashire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, and West Northamptonshire.

Loughenbury was of a similar mind regarding Reform’s attitude to property. “The good news is that the consensus around delivering quality and affordable homes on previously developed land will be stronger than ever,” he said.

“But messaging around sustainability and decarbonisation will need careful consideration depending on the priorities of the LPA.”

Elections to watch

Results will be coming in as the day progresses and into the weekends, so it is best to grab our buckets of popcorn and get ready for a show.

“Politics has never been so interesting,” Cavendish’s Whitmore said. “But with five parties vying for votes from around 40% of the electorate, planning and development issues will never be very far from the campaign trail.”

So which elections should the property world be paying attention to?

For Loughenbury, the ones to keep tabs on are Manchester and Leeds.

“Look out for Green and Reform progress in Manchester and Leeds, which will raise eyebrows in Liverpool ahead of all-out city council elections in 2027,” he said.

Leach had a few she was planning to keep an eye on, but most have a story worth investigating.

“The authorities to watch now are not only those where control changes hands overnight, but also those where insurgent opposition groups begin reshaping the political conversation from the outside,” she said. “Places such as Bolton, Wigan, and Tameside all demonstrate different versions of that trend.”

“St Helens will also be one to watch closely this afternoon as the count progresses, particularly given the scale of the all-out elections and the potential for a significant political reset in the borough,” she said.

St Helens also topped the list for Whitmore.

We would do wrong to ignore the Greens, as well, Hinds warned. He advised keeping an eye on where the Green Party is showing strength and serving as a challenge to Labour.

Blackadder-Weinstein made the case for keeping an eye on Birmingham.

“Even though it isn’t in the North West, I think everyone in the North West should be keeping an eye on what happens at an all-out election in Birmingham,” he said.

“A council that has been Labour-controlled for 15 years or more will be indicative of what I think we will see happen nationally and regionally in the years to come,” he said.