Bev Craig for Greater Manchester Mayor?

Andy Burnham is off to Westminster and the question has turned to who will succeed the so-called King of North.

Having succeeded long-time Leader Sir Richard Leese in the top job at Manchester City Council in 2021, Cllr Bev Craig is no stranger to stepping into big shoes.

The Leader of Manchester City Council would be a “credible and competent” Greater Manchester mayor, according to people Place North West has spoken to, but there are concerns a safe pair of hands alone will not be enough to beat Reform in a by-election.

Craig, who has led Manchester since 2021, is understood to be steeling herself for what is anticipated to be a keenly fought Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July, following Burnham’s convincing win in Makerfield yesterday.

• Read about what happens next following Burnham’s by-election win

While not yet the official Labour candidate, other potential runners and riders for the Labour nomination appear to have fallen away.

Gary Neville is someone who has a profile to rival Burnham’s, but his running was always a long shot. He recently ruled himself out of contention, choosing to focus on his ever-growing portfolio of development projects in Manchester.

One, the redevelopment of the former House of Fraser on Deansgate, has benefitted from more than £40m from Burnham’s £2bn Good Growth Fund, a fact that may have contributed to his decision not to run.

Salford City Mayor Paul Dennett has long been seen as a potential successor to Burnham but has gone cold on the idea, according to sources close to him.

Some had speculated that the Labour Party might look to some of its high-profile GM MPs to bring the fight to Reform.

Angela Rayner, Lucy Powell, and Lisa Nandy are all well-known figures and hail from Greater Manchester but the party does not want to risk another tricky by-election by allowing one of them to stand.

In any case, as Burnham allies, the trio will be eyeing up places in the Makerfield MP’s cabinet, should he become Prime Minister.

Craig has stepped into big shoes before. Credit: Manchester City Council

Can Craig do the job?

When Craig stepped into the Manchester hotseat, the market called for continuity. Craig supporters argue she has provided that and then some.

Shannon Conway, co-founder of development firm Picture This said that Craig has successfully struck a balance between “community benefits with the need to be commercial”.

The unignorable transformation of the skyline during her tenure, a shift in focus from the city centre to outlying areas such as Wythenshawe, and the highest level of affordable housing delivery in 25 years could be considered evidence of Conway’s assertion.

As portfolio lead for economy, business and inclusive growth for the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, Craig is an integral part of the GM machinery and knows the system inside out.

She has also led city region delegations to global events including South by Southwest and MIPIM, where she has championed all 10 boroughs rather than just her own, working closely with Burnham and GMCA chief executive Caroline Simpson in doing so. Of the 10 Greater Manchester council leaders, she is the obvious choice to step up.

Taking over a booming Labour stronghold is one thing but fighting to beat Reform – which has gained in popularity significantly in some parts of Greater Manchester over recent years – is a completely different challenge.

While few doubt Craig would make a good fist of the job, she faces a stiff test to get it. Reform has made waves in the city region’s Northern boroughs of Wigan, Bolton, and Oldham over the last two years, while the Greens are capitalising on Keir Starmer’s unpopularity among left wing voters in the south.

Rob Loughenbury, managing director of political communications firm Lexington, believes that Craig will have to adapt in order to prevail.

“Cllr Craig is a familiar and tested local government leader, who would no doubt be very competent and reassuring for investors and developers.

“But it is a tougher question whether these are the qualities needed to beat Reform outside Manchester and the southern boroughs. To win, Cllr Craig will need to broaden her appeal and show new dimensions to her political persona.”

Cllr Bev Craig is likely to be Labour’s candidate on 30 July. Credit: via RDPR

Can she win it?

The biggest concern about Craig’s chances seems to be her profile. At least in comparison to Burnham, who was a national name when he became mayor in 2017 having served as a cabinet minister.

However, Conway said Craig is more than capable of filling Burnham’s sizeable shoes.

“She is pragmatic, a highly intelligent strategic thinker, and understands long-term generational change.

“When she was appointed as [Manchester] leader I found her very impressive. I think she can raise her profile quite easily.”

Jeremy Hinds, director of planning at Savills, reminds us that, while Burnham was better known than Craig at the point they decided to run for mayor, much of his reputation today has been forged in that role, rather than in Westminster.

“Profile alone won’t cut it,” he said. “Don’t forget, Andy Burnham didn’t have anything like the profile that he enjoys today when he first became mayor. That profile was built by him but partly contributed to by the King under the North reputation.

“The profile itself is something that can be built. It is not a requirement or a requisite.”

One thing that commentators think will benefit Craig is the electoral system that will be used for the mayoral election. A move from first past the post to a supplementary vote – whereby voters pick their first and second choices – is likely to work in Labour’s favour and against Reform. Another factor that might play a role is the rising popularity of Restore, which ate into Reform’s vote in Makerfield.

Andy Burnham is off to Westminster. Credit: PNW

Mayor Craig

If Craig were to run and win, she would likely be faced with a very different political picture in Greater Manchester than the one Burnham inherited in 2017.

“By next May she could be at the GMCA table facing a mix of Reform, Lib Dem, and Green council leaders,” said Loughenbury.

“This will be the real test; getting things done in a genuinely diverse city region.”

If predictions of a politically fractured Greater Manchester come to pass, Craig will need to demonstrate a flair for cross-party working and put on steroids the collaborative approach Greater Manchester has become known for in order to maintain the city region’s momentum in a way Burnham arguably never had to.

Nevertheless, Craig will again be judged on the standards set by her predecessor.

“The challenge for Craig is not competence,” said Charlotte Leach, founder of Charlotte Leech Communications. “The challenge is comparison.

“Andy Burnham’s success was never simply about being a Labour politician. During Covid in particular, he became the public face of Greater Manchester’s interests and built a level of recognition and personal loyalty that very few metro mayors have achieved. Any successor will inevitably be judged against that standard.”

Read what Bev Craig had to say about Manchester’s development challenges last year