Burnham wins Makerfield by-election. What’s next?
Here is what we know about the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election and Andy Burnham’s Westminster agenda.
Burnham is officially MP for Makerfield, having secured more than 50% of the vote at last night’s by-election. It was a sound victory, with runner-up Reform UK 20 percentage points behind.
He heads to Westminster having proven he can defeat the Nigel Farage-led party. A Labour leadership election seems inevitable. Burnham could very well be Prime Minister within a few months.
What this means for Greater Manchester
The biggest consequence of Burnham’s departure is the Greater Manchester Mayor vacancy.
A Greater Manchester mayoral-by-election is set for 30 July. Labour has yet to put forward its official candidate, but there are persistent rumours that Manchester City Council Leader Bev Craig will claim the spot.
Similarly on the rumour front, former mayoral candidate Dan Barker is said to be the Reform UK candidate. The Manchester Evening News puts Trafford’s Cllr Geraldine Coggins as the likely Green Party candidate, Bolton’s Cllr Nadim Muslim as the Conservative, and Manchester’s Cllr Richard Kilpatrick as the Lib Dem one.
The official nomination period for mayoral candidates will run 26 June to 3 July, so expect to have a firm list of who is running in two weeks.
Many in the property industry believe Burnham has left behind an open door for Reform.
One seasoned property professional admitted he is annoyed at Burnham for abandoning Greater Manchester to pursue the top job in UK politics.
“If you look at the situation it is less than ideal,” he said. “Greater Manchester has had consistent leadership and a coherent strategy and there is a danger that might unravel.
“That will be disappointing for a lot of people.”
A property developer delivering high profile schemes in Manchester city centre agreed that the mayoral by-election presents a risk to the status quo.
“I am not very hopeful,” he said.
“The whole thing could end up being a shit show for Manchester.
“It is nice having someone you know [as Prime Minister] but I am not sure Andy is good for business.”
Reform has made clear it intends to throw the kitchen sink at the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election as the party’s star rises in the city region.
Reform performed well in Greater Manchester’s Northern boroughs of Oldham, Rochdale, Wigan, and Bolton at the local elections in May and many believe that Labour only prevailed in Makerfield because of the Burnham-factor.
A new-ish voting model
This mayoral by-election will use a supplementary vote system to find its winner – rather than the traditional first past the post one.
While it may feel new – this was the original method for electing mayors, only being changed in 2022 to the first past the post system.
So what does a supplementary vote system look like?
Voters will choose a first and second choice. If on first count no candidate gets more than 50% of votes, then the race narrows to just the top two candidates. Those who had voted for the now-eliminated candidates will have their second-preference picks be counted.
Royal assent for this voting switch was granted in April. It is due to be enacted today by government.
Labour supporters will be hopeful that should their candidate not secure that initial top vote, that they can net a win through a wave of second preference selections.
Burnham in Westminster
Burnham has not been shy when it comes to voicing his opinion on how he would run the country. Here are a few snippets from the Makerfield campaign about what we can expect from the new MP, should he flip those initials and become PM.
- A resurrection of HS2’s Northern leg
- A cut to welfare to fund defence
- A continuation of the existing borrowing rules, with no income tax, VAT, or national insurance increases
- A flirtation with nationalisation – Burnham has said he wants to bring energy, housing, water, and transport under stronger public control
- A continued devolution push
- A boon for small businesses with a 20% cut in business rates for small businesses and the cutting of employers’ national insurance contributions for small companies
We can expect more to come out as a leadership contest gets going. Watch this space.
Just shows how you can bend the system to suit your agenda. Politics in a nutshell.
By Chris
A strong voice in Parliament , particularly if he makes PM ,should be a result for the North , as he has made no secret of wanting to address the North South funding gap .
The possiblity of another Tory turned Reform mayor would be a disaster for GM .
By Wislon
Hmmm. While Andy has been a steady head of policy in Manchester and has provided continuity since becoming Mayor, I’m not convinced he has actually changed the policies of his predecessors—and that continuity is part of why the city has continued to do well. A new Mayor might try to shift direction, and that wouldn’t necessarily be good for Manchester.
As for what he stands for, it’s difficult to pin down. On several issues where he previously made clear statements, he appeared to reverse himself during the by‑election—from pensions, to bond markets, to re‑joining the EU. He seemed to shape‑shift depending on the moment.
To me, he just represents more of the same.
By Steve5839