Local elections 2023: races to watch, key themes, and more
More than 8,000 seats will be contested at 230 councils across England tomorrow – but what does this mean for the North West?
Nearly all of the councils in the North West are being contested, with only Warrington and St Helens not hosting elections Thursday.
Of the 32 local authorities in the North West where ballots will be cast, 17 will be hosting all-out elections – meaning every seat is up for grabs rather than only one-third.
While the national scene is focused on the fate of the Conservative party, which controls 83 out of the 230 councils with elections, in the North West it is Labour who has the most at stake.
Labour will be defending its control of 18 councils, while the Conservatives are fighting to stay in control of the Fyle, Wyre, Ribble Valley, and Pendle.
The remaining 10 councils are under no overall control and could change hands under this year’s bout of local elections. These are Bolton, Burnley, Blackpool, Hyndburn, Stockport, West Lancashire, Wirral, Cheshire West and Chester, Cheshire East, and South Ribble.
Christopher Peacock, director of strategic communications agency Lexington, highlighted Oldham and Stockport as two “interesting” councils worth keeping an eye on as results are counted.
“Many will be watching Oldham to see if they could lose their third council Leader in three elections at the ballot box”, Peacock stated. Last year, Labour maintained control of the town, however Leader Cllr Arooj Shah lost her seat in Chadderton South. Her predecessor, Sean Fielding, lost his seat in 2021. Labour can only wait and hope that current Leader Cllr Amanda Chadderton is not a victim of the same fate.
Meanwhile, in Stockport, the consistent battle for control between Liberal Democrats and Labour will continue with the current council makeup at 28 Liberal Democrat, 22 Labour, four Conservative, seven Independent, and two Green. Labour Cllr Elise Wilson was removed from her post as Council Leader last year, replaced by Liberal Democrat Cllr Mark Hunter.
- READ MORE: What to expect from Stockport’s new leader
Although not a majority, Bolton is the only Greater Manchester authority controlled by the Conservatives and is one to watch this year as all 60 seats in the town are up for grabs. Labour is currently 12 seats short of a majority and the Conservatives only six.
Whether they are red or blue, those in the property industry should be rooting for the number of councils with overall majorities to increase, according to Anna Wrigglesworth, director of political consultancy C|T Group.
“With so many [no overall control authorities] on the line, a return to overall majorities would give the property industry more confidence in moving forward with developments without fear of their site becoming a political football”, she said.
Looking nationally, Peacock said developers should be looking for Labour victories.
“Labour is committing to national housing targets while the Conservatives are not”, he said. “Labour looks more pro-property and pro-development at the moment than the Conservatives.
“For the Conservatives, their key campaign almost everywhere has been centred around funding for potholes, council tax, and promotion of Rishi Sunak, as well as ‘culture war’ issues like protections for transgender individuals.”
For Wriggleswoth, housing is a central pillar of the campaign. She highlights Labour’s pledge to bring back housing targets following “the failed Conservative promise to build 300,000 homes per year”. Secretary of state Michael Gove made these targets advisory rather than mandatory last year, following backlash about development in constituencies.
The local elections will act as a significant test of public opinion and help set the stage for the next general election, which will have to take place by next autumn.
For Labour, this year’s local elections are about gains. For the Conservatives, they’re about holding on.
Wrigglesworth describes the Conservatives as being engaged in a “two-front war” nationally.
“While the Lib Dems aim to make significant gains in the South, people will be watching how Labour performs in the North and Midlands,” she stated. “As a result, you can expect Labour’s reconnection with its Brexit-voting former heartlands to be scrutinised across councils in the North.”
Peacock said that “it is likely that traditional Conservative voters will be somewhat reluctant to vote for them this year. However, this will not translate into Labour votes and is more likely to boost the ballots cast for Independents and other political parties.”
It will most likely be Friday before the full vote counts are in, but we could be waiting even longer. Place North West will be covering the election results as they come in – watch this space.
Could be a very interesting time in Liverpool with the recent history of some Labour Councillors and the performance of the Party itself. Quite a few Independents standing and new movements away from traditional established political bodies.
By Liverpolitis
Your numbers are wrong for Stockport as there have been various changes since the local elections last year, with a number of councillors becoming independent for a variety of reasons. Correct, current numbers are:
– Liberal Democrats 28
– Labour 22
– Conservative 4
– Green Party 2
– Independent 7 (including 3 Heald Green Independent Ratepayers)
By Martin Cranmer
Hi Martin! Thanks for letting us know. We have updated the story with the correct numbers. – Julia
By Julia Hatmaker
The Tories in Bolton make me laugh. Go on about having to turn round Labour’s tanker from when they took control in 2019. The only maritime metaphor I can think of is that they’ve torpedoed the tanker, given all the regen plans that have fallen through here.
By Babaganoosh
The Lib Dems in Liverpool are asleep at the wheel and I’d be surprised if the independents gain much headway. Expect a reduced Labour majority, but no earthquakes.
By Anonymous
Bolton Labour must never be allowed in power again – what an absolute shambles it was. No mention of Bury (which is quite marginal). I personally think the Conservatives will be punished at the polls and lose 1,000+ seats. It’s a shame as there are some really good Con councillors who will lose their seats based on national, not local, issues,
By Observer
@Observer
Good and fair points – Fylde Conservatives have run the borough very professionally in recent years. They’re clear of debt and Council tax is low, with no cuts to services. The work on Kirkham’s regeneration is already underway.
But there’s a real chance that the independents (and these, up and down the country, will have an exceptional year) could take power. Now, some of these councillors are very good and locally focused. Others, though, may not be quite as independent as we think.
By SW