Don’t be surprised if Labour loses North West seats in 2023 local elections

CREDIT: House of Commons via CC BY 3.0, bit.ly/3IQxTQx

Keir Starmer has been in Manchester this week, launching his ‘5 missions for the country’. It’s been reported that the party is already planning for their second term in government. Though in the midst of this projection of confidence, I’m going to make a counterintuitive prediction: Labour will lose seats in the North West in this year’s local elections.

“Haven’t you seen the YouGov poll putting Labour on 50% of the vote?” I hear you cry. Yes, I have, but a number of factors will mean that we shouldn’t expect this to lead to a red tsunami in this region when voters go to the polls this spring.

So what are the factors that I think will mean Labour won’t clean up in May?

Labour is at a relatively high watermark for this round of elections

2023 is a big election year. There will be elections for all District Councils, the Unitary Councils in Cheshire and Lancashire, and all but one of the Metropolitan Boroughs. In fact, the only people in the North West who won’t be heading to the polls in May are those residents in Cumbria and the good people of St. Helen’s (where elections were held last year and won’t be held again until 2026).

We have to look back to 2011 to appreciate that Labour is notionally defending a large number of seats. That year, the party made a gain of 857 seats nationally, mainly at the expense of the Lib Dems who were one year in to their coalition deal with the Tories. In subsequent rounds of elections where the same seats were contested, namely 2015 and 2019, the party only lost 203 and 84 seats respectively. Labour therefore doesn’t have much of a gap between where it currently sits and what would represent a very good result.

The party isn’t just fighting the Tories

Labour strategists are realistic about how much of their poll lead is down to the unpopularity of the Tories. Keir Starmer himself has said that he encourages the Shadow Cabinet to think like they are only 5 points ahead, rather than the current 20+. A lead like this, based on the unpopularity of your national opponent, doesn’t guarantee you success locally. Voters aren’t hugely motivated to come out and vote Labour, they just want rid of the Conservatives nationally. This means that voters who will put their cross in the Labour box on general election day can’t be relied upon to show up to the polling station in a couple of months’ time.

An added complication for Labour is that in many places there are other options for voters. The wave of independent parties across the region have been acting as a “none of the above” option in recent years. The Lib Dems and Greens have been bolstering their numbers across the region too, often at Labour’s expense. We can expect this to continue in places like Salford, Rochdale, Manchester and Liverpool.

Labour are incumbents in lots of places across the North West

Many Councils across the region were picked up by Labour in the early days of the coalition and have remained red ever since. While Labour may be the agents of change nationally, this is not the case in much of the North West. Conservative Council candidates are already delivering literature branded “local Conservatives”, attempting to put distance between them and the unpopular national party by pitching themselves against Labour administrations that they argue are tired and arrogant.

Voter ID

While this fascinating blog from the former president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, explains how the demography of Labour and Tory voters has flipped around since the 1980s, with those who are further up the income scale now more likely to vote Labour, the Labour Party in the North West still relies on less well-off voters for a large proportion of its support. This group is among those most likely to be caught out by changes requiring the presentation of voter ID at the polling station, as they are less likely to hold valid forms of ID such as driving licences and passports.

So, what will this mean for property investment?

The North West will remain a Labour local government stronghold. Despite all of the above analysis, the party isn’t likely to suffer losses on a scale that would cost it control of Councils. However, what it will mean is slightly larger opposition groupings on many local authorities in the region. This could make the navigation of relevant stakeholder relationships for significant projects slightly more delicate post-May than it is today.

BECG is a sector specialist communications agency for the built environment. We can assist developers in managing stakeholder relationships. Contact Kevin Whitmore on kevin.whitmore@becg.com if you require advice on the politics of planning in the North West of England.