Here’s what the North West property market will look like this year
A more stable economy and increased local powers and funding will improve the property landscape, however shifting the dial on development and investment will be a slow process as the region fights to overcome hurdles.
Building Safety Act
The murmurings of discontent in relation to the overworked and understaffed Building Safety Regulator will get louder in 2025 unless the government heeds the warnings of the private sector.
Only the most organised developers will prevail with schemes that include high-risk buildings, which could potentially push opportunists further towards the sidelines.
Expect fewer starts on site as the industry comes to terms with the demands of the Building Safety Act.
Devolution
Greater Manchester is expected to receive clarity on a single settlement in 2025 as the city region forges ahead on its devolution crusade. The deal will afford the GMCA unprecedented freedom to spend on the projects it deems most important.
Meanwhile, we will see if Lancashire’s fledgling combined authority can affect meaningful change in the face of dissent from some councils within the county. There are concerns that the watered-down, mayor-less model threatens to do very little to move the growth dial while other areas push on around them.
Cumbria and Cheshire are further behind on their devolution journeys but will need to make positive steps in 2025. If not, the government, as threatened in the recently published devolution white paper, will do it for them.
Strangeways
Perhaps Manchester’s most intriguing regeneration prospect, the vision for the 320-acre area around the prison (formerly) of the same name will be fleshed out in 2025.
The project, which includes parts of Salford, could be genuinely game-changing but those hopeful that HMP Manchester will be relocated to a more appropriate location, thus unlocking the huge swathe of land it currently occupies, will continue to be frustrated. The Ministry of Justice has no plans to move it at the time of writing.
Viability
A topic that frustrated the industry, stymied development, and dominated conversations in 2024 is not going anywhere fast.
Developers will continue to stare forlornly at appraisals next year, which will force them to adopt innovative approaches to structuring deals and accept narrower margins.
The spending review will provide detail on how the government plans to tackle this issue but without a serious amount of grant funding it is unlikely anything will change soon.
This time next year we will almost certainly still be talking about the viability of schemes in the North West and beyond.
In the meantime, join Place North as we push for more government grant support for Northern projects. Sign the Mind the Gap Campaign.
Planning for growth
Labour’s tenure has got off to a rocky start but one area where the reception of ideas has been positive is its approach to planning.
A revised NPPF, increased housing targets, and plans to reduce the influence of untrained planning committees have been well-received by the property industry.
Speeding up decision-making and putting it in the hands of experts will inject confidence into the development process but will it move the dial on housing delivery?
Despite positive moves to improve the planning system, expect 2025 to be characterised by the dichotomy between Labour’s stated growth ambitions and the reality on the ground.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ October tax hikes and November’s sharp rise in inflation have both rocked confidence in the market.
Labour’s mission to build 1.5m homes over the course of the Parliament always looked ambitious. Even at this early stage, it’s looking pretty much impossible. Could we see a revision of that target next year?
Data centres and power
Data centres have been designated as critical infrastructure by the government meaning that 2025 will be the busiest year yet for the sector.
It is a simple case of supply and demand. Our increasingly online society is driving demand for data centres jam-packed with servers to allow us to browse the web and stream our favourite TV shows.
The hunt is very much on for sites appropriate for this kind of development, which are hard to find. There are relatively few plots with the amount of power required to sustain a data centre, which will increase the clamour for small nuclear reactors.
The year of the refurb
With the supply of Grade A new-build office space becoming increasingly acute, expect landlords of secondary workspace assets to pull the trigger on refurbishment projects.
Offices in need of repositioning will continue to come to market as those without the stomach for comprehensive refurbishment projects cut and run.
This will open the door for new market entrants who see the value-add opportunities presented by older buildings.
Only time will tell if the occupational market comes along for the ride and chooses to relocate to a refurbed space. Although in reality, they may not have much choice.
Liverpool’s comeback
All told, 2024 was a good year for Liverpool.
Plans have emerged for a tall building cluster at King Edward Triangle, Homes England has provided a £55m grant to kickstart development at Liverpool Waters, and the city council managed to acquire one of the city’s most high-profile development sites.
In 2025, one of the city’s largest-ever development projects in the shape of Everton’s new stadium at Bramley Moore Dock will complete, while a developer partner will be picked for the 1,300-home Festival Gardens.
Movement is also anticipated on the long-awaited final phase of Kings Dock.
A shift in investor sentiment towards Liverpool is expected and could be further boosted if Pall Mall – the stalled 400,000 sq ft office development – gets moving.
Piccadilly Gardens
In 2025 we will finally get a glimpse of what one of the country’s most maligned public spaces will look like.
The overhaul of Piccadilly Gardens has been promised for what seems like forever and as time has passed it has become regarded as the city’s number one blight.
LDA Design was picked in 2023 to draw up designs for the future of the public space, which requires more than just a few planters and a jet wash. Comprehensive intervention on a plethora of issues including crime and transport is needed.
Failure to address the issues that have contributed to Piccadilly Gardens’ demise will constitute another blow to Manchester City Council’s already dubious reputation for the delivery of public space.
Your thoughts
Those are our predictions for 2025. Share your own crystal ball visions in comments section.
You are spot on placing the Building Safety Act at the top of your list for next year – the need for clarity on the detail of what is required and certainty on the timescales associated with the Gateway 2 and 3 assessments via the Building Safety Regulator will be critical to ensuring that a pipeline of residential schemes above 7 stories are in the pipeline.
Watch out for the Ministers who have not been briefed about this technical issue and then a revision to the 1.5m homes target (which we don’t have the skilled labour to deliver aside from the BSA!!)
By Anonymous
The implementation of the Building Safety Act has been woeful. I am aware that proposed safety improvements such as sprinkler installation, cladding removal and type 4 fire risk assessment works are being held up by the regulator. If much needed safety works are being held up what hope have newbuild high-rise got?
By Anonymous
I don’t know why the construction industry get themselves in such a tizz about BSA. If everyone had done their jobs as they are expected in the first place instead of cutting corners. Then there would be no bsa
By Anonymous
Manchester Centre could do with an underground bus station, that would improve Piccadilly Gardens quite a bit
By Anonymous
BSA is an absolute farce. Clearly understaffed department, projects will be delayed for years. Currently having to plan 26 weeks, yes half a year to get a gateway 2 approval!! Embarrassing!
By WindyMcWindface
A “more stable economy”? According to most economists, we’re in danger of having our first recession since the COVID-crash. Business investment has collapsed, order books are down, companies have stopped hiring and are laying off staff and inflation is trending up again. How does any of that amount to a “stable economy”?
By Matthew Jones
Mathew Jones, the last UK recession was 2023 under the last Government.
By Anonymous
All surveys of young workers show that they have no interest in working in the traditional office and if they do are actively seeking new jobs where office attendance is not required
Companies bosses might be personally attached to idea office working but the need to attract and retain staff will force their hand into abandoning the traditional office
The provincial property market unfortunately is unable to see the future and is stuck in the past and thinks their is a long term future in building offices when all the evidence points to the opposite
By Barbara Roche
Re: The year of the refurb
Only antiquated management see the need for office working. Organisations and departments that don’t adapt face the cycle of resignations and recruitment problems.
By Anonymous
Ew AI
By Anonymous
Pall Mall will only come forward if it is entirely publicly funded – it won’t change “investor sentiment” a bit
By Sentimental Journey