Greater Manchester GVA to outperform UK, says report

Greater Manchester's Gross Value Added is forecast to be up 1.7% in 2011 compared to 1.3% in the UK as a whole, according to new data.

The forecasts are the latest outputs from the Greater Manchester forecasting model, produced by Oxford Economics for New Economy, the strategic lead for economic growth in Greater Manchester, on behalf of the 10 local authorities in the area.

Data shows similar growth for 2012, with average growth over the next decade, to 2022, of 2.5% a year. The anticipated growth is however a downward revision on last year's forecast of 2.8% a year over the same ten year period.

The Greater Manchester forecasting model is updated annually and produces results for Greater Manchester's districts by analysing past statistics in light of the latest global and UK economic conditions.

The 2011 update of the Greater Manchester forecasting model also shows that over 100,000 additional jobs are expected to be created in Greater Manchester over the next decade.

Job creation will be heavily reliant on financial and business services, which are forecast to create 70% of the additional jobs. The next largest growth in employment will be in distribution and hotels, reports the Greater Manchester forecasting model.

Over the next quarter of a century, employment growth will be heavily dependent on job creation in the business services sector, where growth of 42% is forecast up to 2032. Total employment across all sectors is expected to grow at a steady but slower rate of 6% over the next quarter of a century.

The forecasts also highlight that within the North West it is the Greater Manchester area that will continue to show the best performance in terms of GVA and other key economic indicators.

Baron Frankal, director of economic research at New Economy, said: "In the current climate of weak growth and constrained resources, access to the detailed economic intelligence provided by GMFM is invaluable in shaping decision-making to ensure maximum impact.

"GMFM highlights that opportunities for growth exist right across the conurbation and that a particular focus is needed upon those sectors that are internationally competitive and can generate exports."

The findings of the model were presented in a seminar by Alan Wilson, director of consulting services at Oxford Economics and Neil Gibson, director of regional services at Oxford Economics.